It’s Time to Stay the Courier

From the New York Times Business Section
By JOE NOCERA
Published: August 7, 2009
Consider the plight of John E. Potter, the chief executive of the second-largest employer in America. On the one hand, he has a guaranteed monopoly for much of his business. On the other hand, monopoly or not, the combination of the Internet and the recession is absolutely crushing his company, just as it is for so many other companies across the country. His last quarter’s results, which were announced on Wednesday, revealed a loss of $2.4 billion. The business is on track to lose a staggering $7 billion in 2009, on around $68 billion in revenue. That’s practically General Motors territory.

What can he do to fix the situation? Surprisingly little. His employees have clauses in their union contracts that forbid layoffs. Nor can he renegotiate their gold-plated benefits, the way, say, the auto companies did when their backs were against the wall. Political pressure makes it nearly impossible to shut down any of his company’s 34,000 facilities, no matter how outmoded or little used. He can borrow money, but under the law, he can add only $3 billion in debt a year — an amount that isn’t going to come close to covering his losses.

Oh, and get this. Every year between now and 2016, he has to put aside over $5 billion to finance health benefits for future employees. You read that right: future employees. There isn’t another business in the country that finances benefits for employees it hasn’t even hired yet.

Welcome to John Potter’s world. He’s the nation’s postmaster general. Yes, that’s right: for the last nine years, he has run the United States Postal Service, which, since 1970, when it stopped being a government department and started becoming self-sufficient, has been the oddest of ducks. It is expected to operate as a business, turning a profit and so on, and yet it is still subject to Congressional oversight and all sorts of legal constraints, like that ridiculous health benefit prefinancing for future employees, which was part of a big 2006 postal reorganization bill. (Its main purpose, it would seem, is government accounting: those funds get counted against the federal deficit.)

Even so, until recently, Mr. Potter had had a pretty successful run. A smart, likable, lifelong Postal Service executive, he got it through the anthrax crisis early in his tenure. He saw it through 9/11 (in no small part by engaging Federal Express to fly long-distance mail during the day, when its planes were empty, something it still does). He has overseen productivity gains and, according to a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, a rise in customer satisfaction. Between 2001 and 2006, he even eliminated the Postal Service’s $11.3 billion debt. That year, 2006, was also when demand for mail service peaked, with 210 billion pieces delivered.

But the last few years have been brutal. The Postal Service lost more than $5 billion in 2007, and another $2.4 billion in 2008. And, of course, it is on track to lose that whopping $7 billion in the current fiscal year. (Its fiscal year ends in September.) The amount of mail being sent is dropping like a stone — it will be down to 175 billion pieces in 2009. Mr. Potter has reduced the Postal Service’s head count to 650,000, from 800,000, almost entirely through attrition. He has cut costs every way he can think of. And still the losses mount.

A few weeks ago, the Government Accountability Office added the Postal Service to its list of “high risk” federal agencies, meaning that it is in such dire straits that it needs “to restructure to address its current and long-term financial viability.” Indeed, if something doesn’t change by the fall, the Postal Service will have to renege on those health benefit prepayments — despite its legal obligation to pay them — or start missing payroll. “U.S.P.S. must align its costs with revenues, generate sufficient earnings to finance capital investments, and manage its debt,” the G.A.O. said. Just like any real business would.

“If you are asking me to run it like a business, give me the same tools that someone would have in the private sector,” Mr. Potter said when I spoke to him recently.

But as I discovered on Thursday, when I watched a Senate hearing on the current Postal Service crisis, that’s not likely to happen. For one thing, Mr. Potter isn’t really asking for the tools he needs to turn the Postal Service into a real business. He is asking Congress to relieve it from the health prepayments, which he is likely to get, at least temporarily. He is also asking that the Postal Service be allowed to reduce mail service to five days a week, and to eliminate some postal branches. These aren’t exactly revolutionary ideas — yet they are viewed as highly controversial in Congress, which frets that constituents might get angry if the local postal branch closes.

But even if Mr. Potter were to get his way on these two items, they would still be only stop-gap measures that fail to tackle the bigger question. As the Internet continues to erode the use of snail mail, does the Postal Service’s business model still make sense? Do we even still need the government to deliver the mail anymore?

To me, the answer is obvious: no.

Think for a minute about the mail that comes into your home. In the modern age, very little of it is personal mail. The vast majority is commercial mail of some sort — advertisements, bills, movies from Netflix or catalogs. Once upon a time, said Rick Geddes, an associate professor in the department of policy analysis and management at Cornell University, the postal service was viewed as “a way to bind together the nation. In subsidizing mail service to rural communities you were keeping them connected to the rest of the country.” But today, he added, “it is kind of silly to say we are binding together the nation through advertisements and catalogs.”

These days, the main justification for keeping the postal service as a quasi-government entity is the belief that no private company would be willing to deliver the mail to sparsely populated rural areas of the country. People fear that it would be a little like airline deregulation: communities that weren’t large enough to justify flights in the newly deregulated environment lost their carriers.

But that mission of universal service has all but blinded just about everyone connected with the Postal Service. Congressmen — many of whom, after all, come from rural areas — are loath to give the Postal Service too much free rein for fear that Mr. Potter’s minions will start shutting down post offices. (Never mind that 2,000 of them serve fewer than 100 people each.) The postal unions, with their no-layoff clauses, have used universal service to justify benefits so generous the Postal Service would save $600 million just by bringing them in line with other federal employees.

As for Mr. Potter himself, while he may want more freedom to run the Postal Service like a real business, he, too, seemed surprisingly wedded to outmoded ideas about mail service in America. “This country needs to have and to protect universal service,” he said. “Our business is all about making sure every American can stay connected with every other American.”

I failed to ask him the obvious follow-up question: Don’t e-mail messages now do that?

For most of us, of course, it does — and that will increasingly to be the case, as broadband makes it way into, yes, even those rural areas that everyone is so worried about. Michael A. Crew, a professor of regulatory economics at Rutgers told me that that while the Postal Service’s “short-term situation is bleak, its long-term situation is really bleak.” He is one of a number of experts who say they believe that even when the recession ends, the Postal Service’s woes won’t be over. As businesses look to save money in the recession, for instance, they are starting to do end-arounds the Postal Service. Online bill-paying is become ever more popular. Evite is starting to replace mailed invitations to parties. None of that business is ever coming back.

Which is why, instead of trying to find short-term, piecemeal solutions to the current crisis, those involved in managing and overseeing the Postal Service ought to be thinking harder thoughts about blowing up its business model. Maybe the Postal Service should turn itself into a giant outsourcer, handling some tasks but handing out others, for a fee, to more efficient companies. Maybe the government should allow companies to bid on lucrative urban delivery — with the proviso that they also deliver to rural areas. Maybe some areas should get mail deliveries less frequently than others. Maybe there should be radically different pricing structures. Maybe it should even lose its monopoly on first-class mail. I mean, why not?

Mr. Geddes, the Cornell professor, says he believes that the only solution is for the Postal Service to become “just another company” — lose its monopoly, shed its bureaucratic mind-set, become able to negotiate freely with its unions, and answer to shareholders instead of Congress, which is always going to resist significant change that might upset a constituent. Only when that happens will it be able to bring its costs in line with its revenue.

“The post office is not broken,” Mr. Potter insisted. But surely it is. And its current crisis brings to mind Rahm Emanuel’s line that you never want a serious crisis to go to waste.

Alas, here in the middle of its worst financial crisis ever, the Postal Service and Congress seem utterly intent on wasting it.

Tags: Direct Mail, Direct Marketing, direct marketing association, Jack Potter, Jack Potter congressional testimony, junk mail, Letters, Mailing, mailing services, Money, Philadelphia Post Office, Postage

Summer Postage Sale – well, sort of a sale, no, more like a small rebate

To those that are excited about the impending summer postage sale, there are a few details you need to know, first, did you receive a letter from the USPS recently?
Here is what it looks like: summer-sale-electronic-letter

Here are the details:
The USPS has made it official (almost) that they are going forward with the proposed ‘Summer Sale’ event. The PRC must still weigh in with their decision, which is expected in late May, to make this program official. This program would provide a 30% postage credit on mailings submitted between July 1, 2009 and September 30, 2009. This incentive program is designed to increase mailing activity during the usually dormant summer months, when the USPS has their most excess capacity available.

Unlike most sales however, there are a multitude of qualifiers that apply to the Summer Sale.

Who and what qualifies?
For the most part, the USPS has already determined what mailers qualify. Letters were sent out on 5/7/09 to approximately 3,200 mailers whom they determined will be eligible for this program by utilizing the mail volume data that exists within their internal system.

1. This program only applies to Presorted Standard letters and flats.
2. The next qualifier is that you must have mailed a minimum of 1,000,000 pieces during the time period of October 1, 2007 and March 31, 2008. Total volume is calculated by mailer, so even if you utilize multiple permits, your total volume will be calculated across all permits that are associated to your organization. This also applies to “Ghost Numbers”, which are created if your mail is sent through a Mail Service Provider. If you feel you are eligible, but have not received a letter, then you can request a contact by emailing your information to summersale@usps.gov.

If you have met the criteria above, you are ready to begin to calculate the ‘Sale’ portion of the program. The 30% postage credit will be given only on the number of mail pieces that exceed your mailing threshold for the time period of July 1, 2009 to September 30, 2009. The caveat to this all is that your mail volume in October must not fall below your mailing threshold for that month. If this occurs; the total credit accrued from mailings between 7/1/09 to 9/30/09 will be deducted by the amount of pieces that fell below the threshold in October and that will be the final credit. The credit will be issued at some point in December of 2009 once the USPS has completed the above calculations.

How to calculate your potential savings:
Below is an example of how to calculate the savings that you as a mailer may receive through this program. Listed in this example is the all important Threshold, which will be the key to planning your mailings to take advantage of this program.

1. Base volume (7/1/08 – 9/30/08): 500,000 pieces

2. Trend:

a. Volume 10/1/08 – 3/31/09 = 1,800,000 pieces

b. Volume 10/1/07 – 3/31/08 = 2,000,000 pieces

c. a/b = (1,800,000 / 2,000,000) = .90 or 90%

3. Base x trend = Threshold:
500,000 x .90 = 450,000

4. Rebate = (Actual volume – threshold) x (actual postage cost / actual volume) x 30%

a. Actual volume for 7/1/09 – 9/30/09 – threshold =
475,000 – 450,000 = 25,000 pieces

b. Actual postage cost / actual volume =
$103,075 / 475,000 = $0.217

c. Rebate =
25,000 x $0.217 x .3 = $1627.50

The October Effect:
It is important to keep your mailing volume for October in mind when factoring the potential savings. If your volume falls below the calculated threshold, then your overall credit will be impacted. Below is an example of how to calculate this effect.

a. October 2008 volume x trend (in #2 above) = October threshold:
300,000 x .90 = 270,000 pieces

b. If October 2009 (260,000 pieces) < October threshold:
Threshold – actual = adjustment
270,000 – 260,000 = 10,000

Rebate adjustment

a. Actual volume – summer sale threshold – rebate adjustment:
475,000 – 450,000 – 10,000 = 15,000

b. New rebate:
15,000 x $.217 x .3 = $976.50

For those of you that have received a letter; be sure to certify the volume that the USPS has provided to you since this will be a binding once you have agreed to enroll in the program. Also be sure to have your response in by August 1st, 2009.
This program is a great way to potentially reach more customers at a lower cost and therefore enhance your business’ ROI. The system is not perfect, but it is a step in the right direction for the USPS to utilize their new found pricing freedom to help mailers.

From the Federal Register today:
Federal Register Notices

DATE: Pending publication in the Federal Register.

Standard Mail Volume Incentive Program (aka Summer Sale)

AGENCY: Postal Serviceâ„¢.

ACTION: Final rule.

SUMMARY:
The Postal Service is revising Mailing Standards of the United States Postal Service, Domestic Mail Manual (DMM®), to add section 709.2 which introduces new standards for a special volume incentive program for mailers of Standard Mail® letters and flats with mail volume exceeding their individual USPS™-determined threshold levels. The program period will be from July 1, 2009 through September 30, 2009.

EFFECTIVE DATE: July 1, 2009.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Kevin Gunther at 202-268-7208.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
The Postal Service is implementing a volume incentive program for qualified high-volume mailers of commercial or Nonprofit Standard Mail letters and flats, for volume mailed between July 1, 2009 and September 30, 2009, above their USPS-determined threshold level. This program encourages mailers to provide new volume and to take advantage of our current excess capacity to process and deliver additional volume.

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Police: Postal worker threw away mail because it was printed on inferior paper

The discerning postal employee…

A former postal worker in upstate New York has been arrested for tossing mail.

Glen Helmer was arrested Thursday morning and charged with destroying mail he was supposed to be delivering.

According to the criminal complaint Helmer admitted to throwing away bulk mail circulars.

Investigators caught Helmer in the act when they followed him on his route last summer.

It is estimated that Helmer tossed business mail between 100 and 120 times during the last eight years.

On the criminal complaint, Helmer said he didn’t like the flyers because they were printed on inferior quality paper.

Helmer’s next court appearance is set for June.

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Environmental Impact of Direct Mail

Below I have attached a link to an interesting study that was done on the environmental impact of direct mail. It is actually amazing how little impact direct mail has on the environment, especially when compared to other sources of pollutants, like cars.

Another fallacy this study addresses is that all forests will be lost to make paper for direct mailings. Let’s think about this seriously, manufacturing paper and paper products is a huge industry. Do you really think that paper manufacturers want to put themselves out of business by destroying the very source of their product? Let’s get real. Tremendous effort is put into renewing their raw materials and significant dollars are spent on R&D to develope new products that can be manufactured cleaner than recycled paper products.

Take a look, it is quite interesting.

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USPS Offers Discounts for Saturation Mail Campaigns

Direct Newsline

Apr 11, 2009 3:35 PM

While the proposed discounts for high-volume mailers are still in the consideration stage, the U.S. Postal Service has officially rolled out a “Saturation Mail Incentive Program”.

Under the terms of the program, marketers who increase their saturation volume can earn per-piece credits. The discounts would be in effect for campaigns dropped between May 11, 2009 and May 10, 2010.

The Postal Service is offering two incentive categories: Total Market, in which mailers increase the volume of saturation letters and flat sent out over a base year’s volume, and Market Specific, in which mailers increase the volume, over the base year, of Saturation Enhanced Carrier Route mail.

The per-piece credit for Standard Mail saturation campaigns is 3.7 cents for regular letters (2.2 cents for nonprofit mailers) and 4 cents for flats (2.4 cents for nonprofit mailers).

The program is open to marketers currently considered saturation mailers. Marketers must have at least a two-year history as Standard Mail saturation mailers. The marketers must have undertaken at least one mailing during 2007, and six mailings during 2008, within their markets.

Mailers must apply for participation at http://ribbs.usps.gov/index.cfm?page=saturationmail. The deadline for applying is June 11.

Tags: Address Change Service, Advertising, Cost, Direct Mail, Direct Marketing, direct marketing association, intelligent mail barcode, Jack Potter, Jack Potter congressional testimony, Letters, Mailing, mailing services, new postal regs, non profits direct mail, Philadelphia Post Office, Postage, postage increase, postage savings, postmaster, saturation mailing, Savings, USPS, usps regulations for flats

Did you know you could ship animals through the mail???

The Postal Service proposes to revise the Mailing Standards of the United States Postal Service, Domestic Mail Manual (DMM®) by changing the refund guarantees for Express Mail shipments of live animals delivered within 3 days of the date of mailing. In some instances, the Postal Service must reroute Express Mail shipments of live animals to alternative flights or routes in order to protect the well-being of the live animals. This is particularly necessary if other shipments on the same flight contain dry ice or solid carbon dioxide, which will evaporate en route and may displace oxygen. If live animals were shipped in the same cargo hold, the carbon dioxide could cause asphyxiation. The use of alternative flights and rerouting to protect the well-being of the live animals can delay shipments. Therefore, even though the live animals arrive as promptly as possible and in good health, these shipments may not meet normal Express Mail service guarantees. In those instances, some mailers then apply for full postage refunds.

Currently, postage refunds for Express Mail shipments of live animals are granted based on the next day or second day delivery guarantee provided at the time of mailing. This current postage refund policy does not account for the flight changes that may occur to protect the well-being of the animals. Therefore, the Postal Service is proposing that Express Mail shipments containing live animals be exempt from the next day or second day delivery guarantee and that the delivery commitment for Express Mail of live animals be extended to within 3 days of the date of mailing. Postage refund requests for Express Mail shipments of live animals delivered after 3 days of the date mailing would still be granted.

Tags: Address Change Service, addressing regs, Advertising, Ancillary Service Endorsements, Booklets, Cost, coutesy reply mail, Direct Mail, Direct Marketing, direct marketing association, FASTforward, flats, flats regulations, FSS regulations, intelligent mail barcode, Jack Potter, Jack Potter congressional testimony, junk mail, Letters, Money, move update, new postal regs, non profits direct mail, Philadelphia Post Office, Postage, postage increase

Postal carrier saves life

Carriers for the Coeur d’Alene post office are building an impressive reputation.

This week, another postal carrier saved the life of an elderly person who had fallen in her home and been unable to get up for days.

“It’s awesome — we have a very good group of people here, they’re very concerned about what goes on in the community,” said Postmaster Dave Hoover.

Deb Allred, 49, got a bad feeling during her Tuesday route when she saw two newspapers still crammed in the mail slot of 79-year-old Yvonne McDonald.

“I know Mrs. McDonald, she picks up her mail every day,” she said.

Allred found the door open and entered. She saw the TV was on, but when she called McDonald’s name, she only heard the woman’s four dogs barking boisterously from a room in the back of the house.

Worried she could risk a dog bite if she searched the home, she returned to her truck and continued to deliver mail.

But she couldn’t shake the image of all that stacked-up mail.

“I just knew something was wrong — we know she has health problems, we know she had problems getting around,” she said.

Mustering the nerve to take a chance with the canines, she returned to search McDonald’s home. She found the woman on her bathroom floor, where she had been laying immobilized since Sunday.

“What was so touching to me was that when I talked to her, the first thing she said wasn’t ‘help me,’ it was, ‘I need someone to take care of my dogs,’” Allred said.

Allred called 911, and an ambulance collected the dehydrated and disoriented woman.

A neighbor saw the ambulance and volunteered to take care of the dogs until McDonald returned.

Hoover said he has already nominated Allred for a Postmaster General Award.

“She’s an exceptionally good carrier,” he said of Allred, who has worked for the Postal Service since 1981. “She’s highly relied upon as a city carrier and here’s a prime example of her level of concern for her customers.”

The situation strongly reminded him of Isaac Fish, the 21-year-old postal carrier who found an elderly woman in the same circumstances in January.

Hoover didn’t know statistics of how often postal workers discover fallen elderly people in their homes.

“I know it seems Coeur d’Alene has had its fair share,” he said.

Heather Lessler, spokeswoman for Legends Park Assisted Living, suggested that elderly people get a Lifeline medical alert service for their homes.

Lifeline provides a button that elderly people can wear around their arms or necks that automatically calls the paramedics when they push it.

“I know quite a few people who do use it,” Lessler said.

Allred, who lives in Post Falls, said it gives her great comfort to know McDonald is all right.

“I was sitting at home last night thinking that if I hadn’t trusted my instincts and followed through, Mrs. McDonald would still be laying there on the bathroom floor,” she said. “The way I feel is if everybody could help one other person, it would make this world so much better.”

Tags: Add new tag, Address Change Service, addressing regs, Advertising, Cost, Direct Mail, Direct Marketing, direct marketing association, FASTforward, FSS regulations, intelligent mail barcode, Jack Potter, Jack Potter congressional testimony, Letters, Mailing, Money, move update, Move Update Requirements, National Change of Address, new postal regs, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Post Office, Postage

Postal worker arrested on mail theft charges

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Pompous self-righteous dork

Ok Ok, my feelings are expressed in the title of this blog, I just don’t get it, and maybe I’m the idiot dork. What would the world be like without mail? Do you think you won’t get bills or other bad news? Do you know how many industries are supported by direct mail, what are you thinking? And do you think that little of savvy direct marketers that they think they can just use, as you call it “spam” or email instead of direct mail? If it were that easy and effective don’t you think this would have been done long ago? Is this really the bright spot of the economic downturn, less junk mail, is it really that bothersome? All questions i would love to know the answers for.

 You tell me, check out the video:

Junk mail

Tags: Add new tag, Address Change Service, addressing regs, Advertising, Ancillary Service Endorsements, Booklets, bre, Cost, coutesy reply mail, delivery times, Direct Mail, Direct Marketing, direct marketing association, Jack Potter, Jack Potter congressional testimony, junk mail, Letters, Mailing, Money, move update, Move Update Requirements, new postal regs, non profits direct mail, one code, PCC, Philadelphia, Philadelphia Post Office, Postage, postage increase, postmaster, USPS, usps regulations for flats

Interesting…savings accounts through the postal service

Postal sector feeling the pinch, but financial crisis not all doom and gloom
(Press release from the Universal Postal Union)

High-level conference reveals risks and opportunities for the sector and the world economy

The results of a recent Universal Postal Union (UPU) survey indicate that postal networks are increasingly trusted to further the growth of e-commerce and provide financial services. This trust is keeping this postal sector’s head above water as the financial crisis wreaks havoc on the global economy.

While operators are feeling the pinch, especially in the letter-post and express business segments, financial services and some areas of parcel post are showing signs of growth.

This is what the UPU reported today during a high-level conference on the impact of the financial and economic crisis on the postal sector, held at its Berne headquarters. More than 200 participants from 100 countries, including about 40 of the world’s postal CEOs and leading sector stakeholders operating in e-commerce, direct marketing, consulting and equipment and technology manufacturing, attended the special debate.

Results of the survey conducted among 15 of the world’s largest Posts and private courier companies show that the sector is certainly feeling the effects of the crisis, but it is not showing signs of an economic depression like other sectors. Surveyed operators account for 66% of total worldwide letter-post volumes, 88% of parcel-post traffic, and up to 75% of express volumes, providing a statistically valid sample to analyze market evolutions, according to UPU experts.

The worldwide postal sector employs more than 5.5 million employees and operates 660,000 post offices, making it one of the largest industry workforces and the world’s largest physical distribution network.

Strong competition in the parcels and express business segments prevents the UPU from sharing detailed information about country-specific mail volumes, but analysis of survey results provides positive and negative growth rates and thus a good overview of the worldwide postal sector’s situation.

Here are the key findings by business segment (unless otherwise indicated, all figures reflect same-quarter comparisons in 2007 and 2008):

Financial services

Postal financial institutions are experiencing tremendous growth since the crisis began. Some European operators, such as Swiss Post and Deutsche Post, are experiencing annual growth rates above 50% in the number of postal deposits and savings accounts opened in 2008. Interestingly, a similar phenomenon occurred during the Great Depression, according to UPU statistics.

Parcels

After dropping from 0.5% in the first quarter of 2008 to 3.4% in the third quarter, compared to the same periods in 2007, domestic parcel volumes recovered 1.1% on a year-to-year basis in the fourth quarter. Experts say the increase could be due to record e-commerce sales during the last quarter of 2008 or strong resilience of online sales to the crisis observed in several countries.
The news is not so positive, however, on the international parcels front. After experiencing growth in the first three quarters of 2008, volumes decreased by 4.5% in the last quarter among surveyed operators. Experts again believe that international parcels are not benefiting from e-commerce as cross-border sales remain challenging.

Letter post

Domestic letter post is feeling the brunt of the crisis’ impact. In a year-over-year comparison, operators reported a 5.9% decrease in volumes in the last quarter of 2008, due in part to less direct mail being generated, especially by the financial sector as credit thresholds have increased, experts believe.

As direct mail is less developed in the international arena, international letter post is showing more signs of stability. In a year-to-year comparison, Posts reported volumes varying between 3.7% and – 2.8% in the last quarter of 2008 in terms of quarterly growth rates.

Express services

Survey respondents reported a 4.4% decrease of domestic express service volumes in the last quarter of 2008, compared to the same quarter in 2007, while international volumes went from a 7.1% increase in the second quarter of 2008 to a 2.2% decrease in the last quarter.
In last-quarter comparisons of 2008 and 2007, express revenues declined by 7.9% worldwide. Experts explain this drop as a consequence of consumers and businesses moving more towards low-end express services.

Stock-exchange listed Posts

Five Posts – from Austria, Germany, Malaysia, the Netherlands and Singapore – are listed on stock exchanges as well as two express courier companies, Fedex and UPS. A comparison of the evolution of their share price with their reference index from August 2008 to January 2009, the six months covering the worsening financial crisis, shows that, while the share prices of some operators were closely correlated with their reference index, those of others evolved much more positively than the market (see graphic in main report; link indicated below). Considered defensive stocks, listed postal services’ shares tend to resist better during a crisis and can even gain value, say UPU experts.

Comparison with the Great Depression

To compare the effects of this crisis with the worst performances achieved during the Great Depression, UPU experts also looked at historical postal statistics from the 1930s. Here’s what they found (all statistics from the UPU, unless otherwise indicated):

• So far, the sector has not reached performance levels recorded during the Great Depression, when postal revenues decreased by 12.3% in the United States between 1931 and 1932.

• Between 1928 and 1934, franking revenues in the United States decreased by 21.9%, with the highest drop (12.3%) occurring between 1931 and 1932; postal employment dropped by 17.6%; and the number of post offices fell by 7.8%.

• Postal savings account deposits multiplied eight-fold in the United States in the 1930s, reaching 1.2 billion USD (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs).

• In France, the sharpest decrease in franking revenues (24.8%) occurred between 1931 and 1932, following a 15.5% drop between 1929 and 1930.

• In Germany, the largest decrease in letter-post traffic reached 16.6% between 1930 and 1931.

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